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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Saturday, 6/25/16 update

The bear alternate from the Jun 17 update didn't exactly play out as projected, but a bear posture towards the ES was obviously the right choice.  Currently this is labeled as a "c" wave in a flat type correction to the rally off Feb's low into the April highs.  A 50% retrace of that run is ES 1954.00, which is what is projected in the chart.  But that's no more than a guesstimate, the ES could sell off to even deeper lows or the correction could already be over.


There is a much more bearish alternate which would require a drop below the 1802 low of Feb, if it looks like that is going to happen I'll post that alternate.  Right now the steep sell off Friday appears to be a very reactionary response to politics, and as such the odds favor a low for the sell off sometime in the next week or so.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Thursday, 6/23/16 update

ES futures oscillator:


Friday, June 17, 2016

Friday, 6/17/16 update

The question to be answered at this juncture is whether Major W2 ended at the mid-May low or whether it's still in progress.  The alternates look like this:

Bear alternate



Bull alternate



Right now the bear alternate appears to have an edge when looking at timing oscillators (http://wttchartses.blogspot.com/2016/06/intraday-oscillators-61616.html). Also this is a seasonally bearish period.  But most importantly, the short term EW count shown on the hourly bearish alternate chart is a much better fit to the pattern.  This last week it appears that the ES traced out a running flat, with Thursday's low being the "B" wave of the flat:











Saturday, June 11, 2016

Saturday, 6/11/16 update

Current short term ES count



This count is invalidated if the ES keeps falling from here down through ES 2022.00, which is the assumed bottom of Major W2.

Saturday, June 4, 2016

Saturday, 6/4/16 update

This past week saw the ES put in about as perfect a flat type correction as will be seen in any market:


The 5 minute chart for Friday's "c" wave shows a clear impulse into the low of the day:


So the question yet to be answered is whether that low marked the entirety of Minute Wave C or just the 1st wave of Wave C.