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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Saturday, 4/30/16 update

The Elliott pattern in the ES since the Apr 20 high is very difficult to discern.  In particular it's a muddy mess from Friday the 22nd through Thur of this week.  The cash market (SPX) is a lot cleaner:


So gearing off that, the short term count for the ES looks like this:


It should be noted that a couple of my short term oscillators generated buy signals at Friday's close, if they are accurate and they lead to significant short term upswings then the above counts will need revision.

The bigger question is whether the Apr 20 high was in fact the terminus for the run up from the early Feb lows.  Odds are good that it was, but that thought remains unconfirmed until a solid 5 wave structure down is generated, which at this point has not yet occurred outside of micro degree levels.
 

Saturday, April 23, 2016

Saturday, 4/23/16 update

The top of the run up from the early February low in the ES may be in as per below:


If not the chances are that it's not very far away:


It has to be mentioned that there is the possibility that this 5th wave could extend in which case both the above counts become poo-poo.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Monday, 4/11/16 update

Here's a couple more possible alternate EW counts for the ES that I didn't publish in yesterday's update.  With today's action they have gained greater probability:



The 1st one has a pair of nested waves 1 & 2 in what will eventually be an "a" wave of a correction, the 2nd has a zig-zag correction already in place with a 2nd zig-zag developing.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Sunday, 4/10/16 update

Traded from the short side last week and did pretty well, but covered short ES positions established on Friday morning at the close that day.  Although my favorite timing oscillator is pointing down for the ES, there are mixed signals elsewhere which raise questions about the continuation of the sell-off.  Not least of these is the EW pattern in the ES from overnight Thur-Fri and through Friday's trading. The rally overnight into Friday morning is clearly impulsive, and the sell off from Friday morning into mid-afternoon only generated 3 waves.  If that sell-off was done at that point then the odds are that we'll see a run up to last Monday's highs at the very least.  ES short term chart looks like this:


With that in mind, here are some possible short term counts:


OR   

 

Saturday, April 2, 2016

Saturday, 4/2/16 update

At yesterdays high of ES 2067.00 the market has traveled 264.50 points in the ES since the early Feb low @ 1802.50.  That's  over 14% in a little over 7 weeks.  So it's fair to anticipate at least a correction (or more) in the near future.

There are a number of possible counts since the Feb 11 low.  My preferred count has the 5th wave of the impulse off the Feb 11 low in progress with a pair of nested waves 1 & 2 of that 5th wave in place.  This would indicate a 3rd of a 3rd wave happening currently.  Friday's strong move up off the day's low certainly fits the bill for that type of move: 



Another possibility at this juncture also has the 5th wave of the rally from early Feb in progress.  However, the count here has the top of the 3rd wave occurring about 10 days earlier than above with a very quick and shallow 4th wave, followed by an ending diagonal 5th wave which is very close to topping:


It's important to point out that from an EW standpoint the rally could extend and thus continue running for quite a bit longer than these counts suggest.  That doesn't seem reasonable, but then again the market is not necessarily a reasonable critter.