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Saturday, November 21, 2015

Saturday, 11/21/15 update

Best guess on the EW count for the ES:

Intermediate term:


Short term:


Sunday, November 15, 2015

Sunday, 11/15/15 update

Market ended the day pretty "oversold" on Friday, but IF the below short term count is correct it still has a bit to run before a short term bottom:



The bigger question still remains, and that is whether this is just a correction in a new bull trend from the August lows as in the 1st chart below, or if it is a resumption of last summer's bear market as in the 2nd chart:


Saturday, November 7, 2015

Saturday, 11/7/15 update

Best guess on the count for the rally from the Sep 29 low:


There are a number of ways to count this rally, so this is only the most likely possibility.  Note that the pattern of Wed-Thur-Fri this last week looks like a triple zig-zag but could also count as a leading diagonal - i.e. it could be the 1st wave of a deeper correction.  In that case, the Minute W1 top of last Wed is actually the Minor W5 top of the entire rally from Sep 29. 
If the market resumes the rally next week, then this count becomes invalidated at ES 2167 where Minor W5 would exceed the length of Minor W3 - since Minor W1 in this count is longer than Minor W3, then Minor W5 must be shorter than Minor W3 to adhere to EW rules.